PROFESSOR OWEN GREENE is Professor of International Security and Development at the Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford. He is an international expert on international relations and on conflict, security and development issues, with wide experience as a researcher and policy advisor on issues involving negotiation or co-operation with the USA.

Here he offers his views on Donald Trump's presidential victory.

"THE victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections was a shock to much of the US political establishment and also internationally. Not only will he be the only US President with no previous experience of public office or military service, but also during the election campaign he offended virtually every section of the US electorate except for his core constituency among white males. Nevertheless, a substantial majority of white voters, male and female, preferred him to Hilary Clinton; proving enough for him to secure victory.

Every US President has great power and authority in relation to international relations and security issues, and in responding to crises. In this respect, the combination of Trump’s inexperience, ill-informed or provocative statements, and apparent character flaws particularly worries US allies, including the UK, NATO members and Japan.

President Trump will be in a much stronger position in US affairs than President Obama. His Republican Party also controls the US Congress and Senate, and he will soon be able to select at least one Supreme Court Judge and change the balance of power.

Many argue that Trump’s election will probably not turn out too badly in practice. They hope he will appoint wise, experienced senior officials in key areas, back away from his most provocative campaign statements, and act cautiously. This is possible, but there are still undoubted risks. Within the USA, he not only ran a highly divisive campaign but also mobilised high expectations that he will bring back major manufacturing industries and millions of relatively unskilled

jobs with good pay. But so far he has no credible policy for achieving this, and his hostility to international trade agreements intensifies risks of recession – within the USA and internationally.

For the UK and our allies, the biggest concerns relate to international affairs and security issues. The President-elect needs to move quickly to reassure key allies and partners on some key issues. Perhaps the most urgent relate to European, East Asian and Middle Eastern security, nuclear non-proliferation and climate change.

Trump has repeatedly expressed admiration for Russia’s President Putin, while casting doubt on his commitments to NATO defence obligations. Although it is unlikely he will profoundly change US security strategies in Europe, the situation is delicate. The main risk is that Trump’s inexperience or over-confidence will allow him to be out-manoeuvred by the tactically astute Russian president.

Similarly for US relations with China and East Asia. It is important for America to maintain a constructive relationship with China, while maintaining Japanese confidence and helping to manage military and territorial rivalries in the region. The Chinese leadership will be both worried about the future of trade and investment relationships with the USA, and alert to opportunities for taking political or military advantage of a clumsy US leadership. On the Middle East, Trump has repeatedly appeared to be badly informed or over-simplistic about the war in Syria, the coalitions against ISIS and Al-Queda, and the nuclear controls deal with Iran. Similarly, he seems not to care greatly about nuclear non-proliferation. The world has become used to US reluctance to co-operate on limiting climate change, but hopefully Trump will not undermine all of the recent progress through the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

The ‘special relationship’ between the USA and UK doesn’t appear to be at risk It is likely Trump will recognise the continued benefits of maintaining a close intelligence and defence relationship. He characterised his election victory as ‘Brexit triple plus’, but it would be wise not to expect too much from this. Having campaigned for a strongly protectionist US trade policy, the prospects are poor for a bilateral US-UK free trade deal on terms that the UK could accept. The wider UK-US security partnership will prove difficult unless Trump changes many policy positions.

More generally, Western influence now depends on careful diplomacy and international coalition building, in which skilled US leadership still plays a central role. Trump will need to avoid making ‘off the cuff’ remarks: everyone around the world pays careful attention to what a US president says.

So far he hasn’t positioned himself well to represent these internationally – let’s hope he learns fast."