China is crucial to the wool trade these days.

More wool goes there from the international market than anywhere else.

Analysts are glued to any bit of information which might give some clue about how much China is buying and, more important, intends to buy.

One of the clues they pick on is the Chinese New Year. This, not being attached to our calendar (I suppose they have no anxieties about that millennium bug in their computers over there) starts tomorrow.

They attach species of the animal kingdom to each of their years - rats, pigs and suchlike. In the year just ending it was the bull. Next year - this year, if you read this on Wednesday - is the year of the tiger.

It is tempting to suggest that the year just ending was not exactly bullish out there in the Far East, bulls in market parlance being identified with buoyantly rising stock markets.

One could wittily suggest this would be a load of bull.

What about the year of the tiger, though? They called all those Pacific Rim countries, of which we now hear so much, the tiger economies, but it's a bit difficult at present to see how they are going to turn round in China's year of the tiger.

Distinctly bearish, the prospect looks.

As for China itself, one reads comments from these analysts (a stupid waste of time, I don't know why I do it) suggesting that China may well devalue (again) to keep up with its competitive Pacific Rim neighbours and their repeated and excessive devaluations.

It may be as well to bear in mind that Hong Kong is part of China these days, too.

If they had an animal to represent doubts and uncertainty and change, that would be my preferred choice as an emblem.

A chameleon, perhaps?

Converted for the new archive on 30 June 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.