THE IMG deadline looms next month, as clubs find out whether they will be in the 12-team Super League for 2025.
Based on last October’s indicative gradings, nine clubs, all in Super League already, are essentially locked in for next year, while 21 clubs have no chance, including current top flight side London Broncos.
The fight for the remaining three places, decided a month tomorrow, essentially comes down to Toulouse, Wakefield, Leigh, Castleford and Bradford, which sounds exciting as some kind of play-off series, less so as a spreadsheet equation.
And while I was broadly positive about the grading concept initially, feeling there was no harm in asking for self-improvement across all departments for clubs, I am becoming increasingly sceptical.
IMG are nowhere to be seen or heard, as they take their role as silent partners in the scheme alongside the RFL to extremes.
And now the RFL are, not for the first time, fielding jabs left, right and centre.
Broncos are pleading to be treated as a special case, understandable given how much they have put into creating an almost-exclusively Southern-based team, which has competed gamely all year in the top flight.
Depressingly, they have spent all season knowing they would be dumped into the Championship for 2025 regardless of results, with no hope of an IMG score in the top-12.
Meanwhile, a dreadful Hull FC team, who only avoided finishing bottom at London’s expense on points difference, essentially were allowed to sleepwalk to 24 defeats from 27, knowing they were a guaranteed A grade club for whom relegation was an impossibility.
If the new system is persisted with, Broncos are unlikely to ever play in Super League again, which makes you wonder why they’d even bother continuing as a club, given the time and effort needed to make a side in London work, miles away from any rivals.
Hunslet’s CEO Neil Hampshire has attacked the RFL this month, expressing his continued disbelief that the IMG rankings as good as remove the concept of sporting merit, and reiterated his original stance of being against the new system.
They and Keighley have been leading that fight in League 1 against the RFL and IMG over the last 18 months, and despite having to comply to a large extent, Cougars are looking to redevelop their ground for example, it is no secret that they want simple promotion and relegation between all three leagues.
It has not escaped my attention that while Cougars co-owners Ryan O’Neill and Kaue Garcia were being ridiculed for their opposition to IMG and the RFL’s plans last year, those nay-sayers have remained suspiciously quiet over the last few months.
They will tell you themselves, they do not get everything right, and their public handling of Matt Foster’s sacking in July was questionable to say the least, but maybe they will end up on the right side of history with this one.
Ironically, Keighley and Hunslet are both still in the hunt to be promoted from League 1 this season, with promotion and relegation still existing between the second and third tiers.
But the Championship is almost certainly the ceiling for both clubs, forever.
And what of a side who actually have half-a-chance of benefitting from IMG and the RFL’s gradings system?
Ultimately, I very much expect Bulls to fall short, at least in terms of 2025 anyway.
Of the five aforementioned clubs that are seemingly fighting for the three remaining Super League spots, Bradford came bottom of that little pack last October.
And while CEO Jason Hirst is right to be broadly positive about the improvements made at the club, especially their progress-hampering stadium at Odsal, even a likely score above 13 seems as if it will not be enough.
Wakefield and Castleford have made big moves off the field, while Leigh won the Challenge Cup last season and booked a play-off spot in Super League on Friday night for the second year in succession.
Remember, performance does still count for 25 per cent of the grade, and the Leopards automatically get more points for their wins in Super League than Bradford do in the Championship.
The Leopards, not knowing for being shrinking violets at the best of times, even posted on X, formerly Twitter, about them getting an A grade of just over 15 immediately after beating St Helens to secure their play off spot on Friday night.
That is by no means guaranteed at all, and a somewhat big-headed move that is unlikely to go down well with the RFL, who are nowhere near giving clubs their final, confirmed grades yet.
And while Toulouse look vulnerable for the top 12, their indicative grading was 12.90 compared to Bulls’ 12.02, so if those scores were fully accurate, that leaves a lot of catching up to do for the latter.
Another huge worry is that clubs are stretching themselves to breaking point financially in trying to comply with the high standards required to improved their grades.
Bulls chairman Nigel Wood blasted the RFL earlier this week, as while Bulls revealed a small profit for 2023, compared to enormous, alarming losses for Super League giants Wigan and St Helens, he confirmed it had taken a superhuman effort from everyone involved at the club to remain in the black.
His argument essentially boiled down to the fact that for rugby league clubs, expenditure is rising, while incomes are absolutely not.
Halifax and Whitehaven are very much in danger of going to the wall, and while there is certainly an argument to say they are not entirely blameless, and may have spent beyond their means, how are they meant to rectify that long-term while under pressure to improve from the RFL and IMG?
Furthermore, Bradford will surely post losses for 2024, given how much work they have had to put into trying to improve their stadium, including re-acquiring the lease, to satisfy the grading system.
But with clubs not knowing each other’s scores, what if Bradford’s improvement to 13 or 13.5 is all for nothing if Wakey and Cas blow them out of the water?
Grumblings are happening everywhere in Super League, the Championship and League 1 at the moment.
And don’t be surprised if there is a volcanic eruption of sorts on October 23.
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