Bradford City and a five-step plan for League Two promotion

Five fourth-tier campaigns in a row have seen numerous pundits have the Bantams down as one of the favourites to go up, and every time they have fallen short.

There is an argument to say there was a chance of them reaching the play-offs in 2019/20, before Covid-19 curtailed that season with them just outside of the top seven.

And they did of course come sixth in 2022/23, only for a disastrous second-leg defeat in Cumbria ensuring they crashed out of the play-offs semi-finals to eventually-promoted Carlisle.

But beyond that, they have rarely even come close to going up, a bit of a head-scratcher when you look at some of the squads they have put together over the last half-a-decade.

And if we’re being honest, the play-offs are fraught with danger anyway, so wouldn’t it be nice if the Bantams could just avoid that and make the top three?

They have already signed three players this summer who got automatically promoted from League Two last season and on paper, there is no reason why City cannot storm into the third tier at the sixth time of asking.

But games and promotion are not won on paper, so let’s look at something of a top three blueprint from the five seasons where City fell short…

2023/24 – Goals, goals, goals

City have relied far too much on Andy Cook in League Two over the last few years.

He banged in 28 goals in 2022/23, but no-one else netted more than Scott Banks’ six, while his 17 last term was more than double the next best of Jamie Walker, who hit eight.

Andy Cook celebrates scoring against MK Dons in February, one of 17 league goals he hit for the Bantams last term. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

With Cook carrying the striking burden on his own at times, City have not scored enough goals to realistically challenge for the top three.

Last season, Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield followed a pretty simple formula.

No other team scored more than the three of them in the division, and the trio were comfortably automatically promoted as a result.

Isaac Oloafe (20) and Paddy Madden (17) stood out for champions County, while Louie Barry’s nine goals in 20 games on loan from Aston Villa no doubt helped their cause.

Paul Mullin (24) and Elliot Lee (16) scored 40 between them for Wrexham, while three players hit double figures for Mansfield, spearheaded by the superb Davis Keillor-Dunn (22).

If the likes of Walker, Tyler Smith, Calum Kavanagh and Jake Young can fire in the goals for fun alongside an in-form Cook, the Bantams might be in with a shot of the top three.

2022/23 – Bouncing back from failure

Sometimes, it feels as if the Bantams carry a hangover through from the previous season.

That was never more evident than in 2023/24, when that aforementioned play-off horror show against Carlisle bled into the new campaign.

The Bantams only won three of their first 11 games in League Two, leading to the sacking of Mark Hughes, and they only really hit their straps in late-November, and ended up with too much to do.

Carlisle had gone up at the end of 2022/23 alongside Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Northampton, all of whom had their own wounds to heal.

The latter in particular had suffered an unprecedented shock in 2021/22.

They won 3-1 on the final day at Barrow, but missed out on automatic promotion on goals scored after rivals Bristol Rovers astonishingly won 7-0 against Scunthorpe.

But they recovered from that dagger to the heart by seeing off Stockport to finish third in 2022/23.

This last-gasp winner for City at Northampton towards the end of the 2022/23 season threatened to derail the latter's automatic promotion hopes, but they held their nerve to get over the line in the end. (Image: Jacob King/PA Wire.)

Stevenage came fourth-bottom in 2021/22, and were in genuine danger of going down.

But they clicked under Steve Evans the following season, and soared to automatic promotion.

And an average Leyton Orient team stumbled to 13th place in 2021/22, a massive 19 points off the play-offs.

No matter, as they saved their energy for the following year, racking up a superb 91 points and romping to the title.

2021/22 – Get it done early

Forest Green, under a certain Rob Edwards, won League Two with 84 points in 2021/22.

But after beating Mansfield 1-0 on April 5, their third victory in a row, they were on course to break the 90 points barrier with ease.

They won just once, against relegated Oldham, in their last seven matches, but had already done more than enough to go up long before that.

City's win at Forest Green in March 2022 did not harm the Gloucestershire side, who went top in mid-September and stayed at the summit for virtually the whole season after that. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

Forest Green probably should not have won the title though, yet second-placed Exeter also had an ugly ending, winning just twice in their last five games.

Neither ended the season strongly, but good work earlier in the campaign allowed them to fall over the line.

As we’ve seen Bristol Rovers left their run to automatic promotion a little later than Forest Green and Exeter…

2020/21 – Consistency home and away

Champions Cheltenham were joined in the automatic promotion spots by Cambridge and Bolton in 2020/21, and a quick glance at the long table that season reveals a big reason why.

Cheltenham only picked up six points less on the road than they did at Whaddon Road, only two points separated Cambridge’s home and away record, while Bolton actually picked up three more points on their travels than they did in BL6.

Bolton were a last-gasp Danny Rowe equaliser away from making it five more points on the road than at home in the 2020/21 season. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

Newport, for example, came fifth, with exactly the same home record (13 victories, five draws and five defeats) as Cheltenham, but they were beaten more times than they won away from home.

Colchester won 10 times at home that season, only one less than Bolton, but while Wanderers picked up 12 victories on the road, the U’s tasted success just once on their travels, and ended up finishing 20th.

2019/20 – Stop the draws

I’ll die on the hill that draws are overrated, after all, in terms of points gained, they’re closer to a loss than they are to a win.

Obviously the 2019/20 season was a bit weird, ending around 10 games early due to the Covid-19 pandemic breaking out.

That meant the final table had to be settled on points per game, which meant automatic promotion for Swindon, Crewe and Plymouth.

That was tough luck on Cheltenham and Exeter, fourth and fifth respectively when the campaign was curtailed, who both came within 0.1 points per game of a top-three berth.

Cheltenham actually lost less league games than anyone that season, only six, but they also drew an unhealthy 13 times, while Swindon, Crewe and Plymouth all had single figures in that column.

One of Cheltenham's 13 draws in the 2019/20 season came at Valley Parade that January, with those dropped points ending up costing them promotion. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

It was a similar story for Exeter, who lost less league games (eight) than title winners Swindon (nine) that season, but drew 11 times to the champions’ six.

Sixteen draws for the Bantams in 2022/23 were undoubtedly a factor in them only getting the play-offs that season instead of automatic promotion.

And as we saw in the play-offs that followed, they’d rather have just avoided the drama…