We all know someone who has been affected by cancer, diabetes, dementia or depression in one way or another.
It’s been revealed that an additional 2.5 million people in England will be living with major illnesses by 2040, new research has found.
The study from the Health Foundation found that 9.1 million people in England will be diagnosed with some of the most serious health conditions.
However, researchers also found that the average life expectancy is set to rise to 83.1 years by then.
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The experts used health and death records to look carefully at the 20 health conditions that account for 65% of the burden of illness in England.
“Almost one in five of the population are projected to be living with major illness by then, an increase of more than a third,” the report said.
“By comparison, the working age population is projected to increase by only 4% – this population group will be responsible for generating the bulk of government revenues used to fund public services including the NHS.”
The report also warned: “There is no silver bullet to reduce the growth in the number of people living with major illness.
“A long-term plan is needed to reform, modernise and invest in the NHS, alongside a bold new approach to investing in the nation’s health and wellbeing.”
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What major illnesses will an additional 2.5 million people in England have by 2040?
Cases of dementia are expected to rise 45% by 2040, heart failure by 92%, cancer by 31%, diabetes by 49%, chronic pain by 32% and anxiety or depression by 16%.
At the age of 70, people will have an average of three long-term conditions, rising to more than five by the age of 85, researchers said.
They said four-fifths of the jump in major illnesses will be driven by an ageing population, with people living longer meaning they are more likely to encounter – and live with – ill health.
Around 80% (two million people) of the projected increase in major illness will affect those aged 70 and over.
Only one out of 20 conditions listed – coronary heart disease – is expected to drop due to declining smoking rates and the use of medications such as statins.
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The study suggested that some gains, such as fewer people smoking and lower cholesterol rates, will be offset by the impact of obesity as many people who have been obese for long periods of their lives then reach old age.
According to Sky News, director of the Real Centre, Anita Charlesworth, said: "The challenge of an ageing population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS.
"Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well prepared we are to meet the challenge is what will set us apart.
"Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.”
She added: "But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades' time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and have significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances."
Lead economist at the Real Centre, Toby Watt, added: "It is crucial to emphasise that these are projections, not forecasts, which are designed to support policymakers in preparing for the future.
"The rise in people living with major illness will not occur overnight.
"Managing these pressures is achievable with careful planning, investment and changes in how care is delivered."
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