In spite of the second successive monthly fall in unemployment and the biggest recorded rise in employment since 1989, we are still being warned to prepare for hard times ahead.

It is easy to be confused and depressed by conflicting economic prophecies. When house prices rise, there’s alarm that the economy is heating up; when house prices fall, it means the economy is slowing down. And all the while the FTSE100 fluctuates.

Perhaps the way to look at it is this: if the Met Office, with all their computers and experts, can get their weather forecasts wrong, as they often do, why should we believe the predictions of economists and television pundits, many of whom were surprised in June when the economy grew unexpectedly by 1.1 per cent.

Rupert Fenton, investment manager with Bradford-based stocks and shares company Brewin Dolphin, knows better than most the part played by confidence in the economy. Stock markets operate on faith and not much else.

Aware of the experts and Jeremiahs warning of another plunge into recession – two successive quarters of negative growth – he remains guardedly optimistic.

“I think there is evidence that the push for recovery is coming from the global economy – China, the Far East and, to an extent, the United States – so we are being dragged along,” he said.

“Events can knock us off course; it all comes down to confidence. You can talk yourself into a recession, there’s no doubt about that.

“The trend over the next 18 months is relatively low growth in the UK economy; after that, it’s difficult to see what might happen.

“I think we will avoid double-dip recession; but that does not mean we will be back to five per cent growth. The Government’s spending review comes out in the autumn and holy hell might be let loose with swingeing cuts to come. There is no clear path and it’s very fragile out there.”

In February last year, when the state of the economy and the weather were the worst anyone could remember, John Eaglesham’s confident belief that the sun was rising over the economic future of the Aire Valley must have made him seem like an eccentric to some.

The former director of engineering at Pace Micro Technology, had just been appointed CEO of the Advanced Digital Institute, the body set up with £2m of public money to provide research and development support and business opportunities to new and existing hi-tech companies.

He said then, and he says now, that new areas of hi-tech development in tele-health and domestic energy conservation had potential global markets worth billions.

He said: “Airedale and Wharfedale are well set up for that in the next decade. We still see lots of reasons to be optimistic about the general direction for the demand for the skills we have in the digital technology sector.

“I take a strong upbeat philosophy based on evidence in my particular bailiwick, the growth technology sector in small to medium firms.

“We can see lots of problems; but I think the skills we have in this region are in demand. We’re talking about future markets, the next big growth opportunities. Pace is just one example of what can be achieved with business excellence and acumen.

“We can always do more. It will be interesting to see what support the new Local Enterprise Partnerships give to businesses trying to make a success in the high technology sector.”

Yesterday, in Bradford Means Business, the T&A’s monthly business supplement, we drew attention to the continuing success of Pace plc at Saltaire – pre-tax profits to June up by 46 per cent over the same period last year; further expansion plans by Bradford-based Seabrook Crisps; a new £5m packaging factory to be built at Buttershaw; and a £2m development by the Zouk Asian restaurant business.

Not enough for Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to break open the champagne perhaps, but rays of sunshine for us ‘oop North’.