The Troubles are being cleared up.

Bradford paratrooper Lee Clegg, jailed for the killing of Karen Reilly in 1993 and freed on licence two years later, has been granted a re-trial, and Tony Blair has ordered an inquiry into the Bloody Sunday killings in Londonderry in 1972.

The process is slow and fraught with risk.

Terrorist splinter groups such as the oddly-named Continuity IRA, Irish National Liberation Army, and the Loyalist Volunteer Force would like to scupper the peace process altogether; ideologically trapped in the past, they continue to fight the battles of the past and reportedly represent the biggest threat to the peace.

But despite the random mortar attacks, despite the small-town murders like those of best friends Damien Trainor and Philip Allen, despite the hunger strike in The Maze, The Troubles are being cleared up. The time is right and the arguments for outweigh the arguments against.

Overwhelmingly the people of Northern Ireland, who have had nearly four years of Provisional IRA and Loyalist cease-fire, want a peace agreement. They've got used to the benefits of increased foreign investment and tourism, with the promise of more to come.

South of the border the Republic, with its young population, strains eagerly towards the rest of Europe and the promise of a revitalised future in the 21st Century. Few people down there feel passionate about possessing the Six Counties which make up Northern Ireland.

European monetary integration is the tide waiting to come in; that too will play a significant part in sweeping away all but the most entrenched prejudices.

On February 1, Ireland's Sunday Independent newspaper proclaimed the astonishing results of a poll in the Republic. Nearly half the population backed internment north and south of the border if a peace settlement was opposed by Republican or Loyalist terrorists. That's how much the times have changed.

Statistics have changed, too. Since 1995, according to the Royal Ulster Constabulary's Press office in Belfast, 60 people have been murdered, all but seven of them civilians. While that's 60 too many, it compares favourably with the 62 murders in the first nine months of 1994, and the 84 killings in 1993.

The climate for change is still there, whatever unrepresentative terrorist groups have done and whatever else they might do.

Dr Mike Page, of Bradford University's School of Peace Studies, told the T&A: "Everything could collapse; but I suspect things will go forward. Sinn Fein returned to the peace talks the other week and the Unionists did not walk out when they did.

"If everything fails, if dialogue fails, if a deal is not produced, it's almost certain that the British and Irish Governments would step in with their version, an imposed settlement, which they can sell to the people north and south of the border by means of a referendum.

"If the referendum, on the same question about national self-determination, was held on the same day and got a positive result, that would make it very difficult for traditional Republicans to claim any legitimacy.

"I think the public in Southern Ireland is as heartily sick of The Troubles as the British public is," he added.

It would be a mistake to take at face value the public utterances of Gerry Adams and David Trimble. The leaders of Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists have had to learn to face two ways during the peace process, re-assuring their supporters while simultaneously talking to the enemy about the possibility of reaching common ground.

US Senator George Mitchell's proffered opportunity of all-party talks has given the protagonists the chance to shape the future. Furthermore it is supported by the British and Irish Governments, the European Commission as well as the United States. A deal would result in a lot of money being invested in Northern Ireland very quickly, Dr Page said.

Against that background, neither Sinn Fein nor the Ulster Unionists can afford to jeopardise the process for the sake of preserving out-dated prejudices when everyone else has moved on.

"David Trimble and Gerry Adams have significant dissident minorities within their parties who will disagree with what they are doing. Both men are having to go farther then they planned.

"If dissident groups tried to subvert the outcome of a North-South referendum, the British and Irish Governments would then be in a position to deal with these groups. I am sure contingency plans are being worked out by security people in Dublin and Belfast in case such a situation arises. We're almost certainly going to see more violence by dissident groups in the next few weeks as we come towards a deal.

"If the Mitchell talks collapse, the British and Irish Governments will have to act quickly to prevent a political vacuum developing," Dr Page said.

Terrorism depends on ghettos of unchanging thought and feeling. Indiscriminate killing is easier when people are dehumanised. But the ideological entrenchments of the past, though still potent in some areas, are politically and economically irrelevant to the bigger realities facing the whole island.

Monetary union has already been mentioned. That will bring greater cross-border activity, which is considerable now. People will live in the South and work in the North, and vice-versa. Dr Page said the Irish Republic had just abolished student fees and could expect an influx of students from the North.

Tony Blair has the security of a massive Parliamentary majority. He wants, expects, a settlement partly to break an historic deadlock and partly to complement political reforms in Wales and Scotland.

The Irish Government, a coalition of eight parties, no longer pivots on the old recriminations of Fine Gael (the party of Michael Collins who brought above the Irish Free State) and Fine Fael (the party of Eamon De Valera who sparked off the Irish Civil War). Constitutionally, the Republic lays claim to the six counties; but few would object if the country traded them for a comprehensive peace package.

Former Bradford teacher Tony O'Callaghan, who has lived in the Republic since 1990, told the T&A yesterday: "Successive Irish Taoiseachs, John Bruton and now Bertie Ahern, have been ready to do a deal on Articles two and three of the Constitution. They represent different political parties (Bruton Fine Gael, Ahern Fine Fael), but their attitude to the peace process has been the same. Most people here are screaming for peace because violence in the North impinges on the Republic, mainly through tourism."

If agreement is not reached by tomorrow, you can expect an imposed settlement in the not-too-distant future.

Converted for the new archive on 30 June 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.