A GLOOMY picture has been painted of the future of upland hill farming, with a Yorkshire Dales National Park Authority report stating up to 30 per cent of farms could disappear by the end of the decade.

The report considers the prospects for upland farming over the next 10 years and will be used as the first step in establishing the need for a review of agriculture related policies in the national park's local plan - the park's planning blueprint for the future.

It states that small and inefficient farms will find it difficult to compete and survive under the new economic climate.

"The continuation of current business practices will result in the further erosion of farm incomes which are already at a dangerously low level across all farm types. The simple strategy of 'belt-tightening' and making no change will not be an option for most farms in the study area," it states.

The report added that there could be a 30 per cent reduction in holdings, which equated to a loss of around 375 to 550 holdings, with small farms and dairy concerns the most at risk.

It also states there will be a decline in the number of jobs due to the pressure to cut costs resulting in the loss of abattoirs and dairies. The decline in agriculture could also threaten local shops.

However, it was not all bad news for the agricultural industry as the report identified there were options for farm diversification, which could mean the future survival of farms.

These options included increasing farm size, moving to organic farming, the direct marketing of products and signing up to farm conservation schemes.

Farm tourism, until recently the most quoted form of farm diversification, was seen as having limited potential, with bed and breakfast accommodation now close to saturation point.

National park chairman Steve Macar said: "This is a comprehensive report that balances the reality of the bad news with positive suggestions for farm diversification - options based on fact. This authority needs now to consider the findings very carefully, with them uppermost in our minds as we review the Local Plan.

"We need to shape our planning policies so they support sustainable agriculture, recognising the invaluable role played by farmers in the management and conservation of the environment.

The research was carried out by The Countryside and Community Research Unit and was undertaken in partnership with North Yorkshire County Council, Craven District Council, Richmondshire District Council, English Nature, The Countryside Agency and The Regional Assembly. MAFF, The Government Office for Yorkshire and Humber and FRCA also supported the project.