IF a general election was called tomorrow, there would be a Tory wipeout in the Bradford district and wider areas, according to a prediction model.

The Electoral Calculus predicts that Labour would take over the Bradford district by holding its three seats and winning in the two constituencies which are currently Conservative.

This comes from a poll-of-polls that predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

It uses maths calculations every month, based on aggregating all the latest polls, and applies them to the last election’s constituency-level results to see who would win a snap election.

Their latest prediction for February outlines that there would be a 91 per cent chance that Labour would either win an outright majority, or be able to form a minority government by working with the SNP and LibDems.

The T&A crunched the numbers down further to see what would happen to the constituencies in the Bradford district.

The district's Tory MPs - Philip Davies (Shipley) and Robbie Moore (Keighley and Ilkley) - would lose their seats to Labour, according to the prediction.

Mr Davies would lose 16.3 per cent of votes compared to 2019, while Labour would experience a nine per cent increase from the last election, for a total of 48.2 per cent in Shipley.

Mr Moore is predicted to have a drop of 15.1 per cent in votes, with Labour expected to get 51.5 per cent of votes in Keighley and Ilkley thanks to a 7.6 per cent rise.

The T&A contacted both MPs for comment and to see whether they felt the prediction is reflective of what they see on the ground.

Mr Davies declined to comment, while Mr Moore never responded.

The most positive outlook is for Bradford South MP Judith Cummins.

She is predicted to hold for Labour in her constituency with an eight per cent stronger majority, taking her party's share in the area to 54.5 per cent.

Ms Cummins feels the prediction is reflective of the feeling around Bradford South towards the current Government, but is not getting carried away.

She said: "While what we have seen across multiple sets of data is encouraging for the Labour Party, the fact is there is only the one poll that counts and that’s on election day.

"I must say that many of my constituents are fed up with this government and Prime Minister and what people are saying to me is reflected in the polls."

Meanwhile, Bradford East MP Imran Hussain is also predicted to strengthen his majority to the tune of 3.6 per cent.

It would give Labour an even firmer hold in the area, with 66.6 per cent of votes.

Mr Hussain said: “Right across Bradford, people are rightly fed up with a Prime Minister playing politics and partying, and fed up with a decade of austerity under this Tory Government which has devastated Bradford and created the sharpest drop in living standards since records began.

“When rising inflation and a soaring cost-of-living means the wages of people in Bradford cover less and less, the Government’s response is to instead hike taxes on the lowest paid whilst cutting them for the richest, and people just aren’t buying their old lies that there isn’t enough money to support working people and our poorest communities when they protect the profits of energy giants and dish out handouts to their donors.

“These decisions have demonstrated to hardworking families across Bradford precisely whose side that this Government are on, and if these polls are anything to go by, people in Bradford will make them pay for it at the ballot box.”

The final MP in district, Naz Shah (Bradford West), would hold her seat, but is expected to lose 0.8 per cent of votes.

This still leaves Ms Shah and Labour with a strong 75.4 per cent in the area.

Ms Shah did not respond to comment.

The T&A also analysed the prediction and data for seven surrounding constituencies, including: Skipton, Calder Valley, Leeds North West, Pudsey, Batley and Spen, Dewsbury and Morley and Outwood.

Currently, five of those seven seats belong to the Conservatives, with two held by Labour.

But the model predicts a drastic switch in these areas, with just Skipton expected to remain Conservative, although their majority would be hit to the tune of 17.1 per cent, dropping the overall vote share for the Tories in the area to 42.4 per cent.

Labour would gain seats in Morley and Outwood (9.7 per cent increase for Labour for 44.7 per cent share; 18.2 per cent decrease for Conservative), Calder Valley (7.7 per cent increase for Labour for 49.6 per cent share; 17.2 per cent decrease for Conservative), Pudsey (8.1 per cent increase for Labour for 50.4 per cent share; 16 per cent decrease for Conservative) and Dewsbury (7.6 per cent increase for Labour for 51.3 per cent share; 14 per cent decrease for Conservative).

Both Batley and Spen and Leeds North West would be Labour hold zones.

The former would experience a 11.8 per cent increase in votes for Labour (for a 54.5 per cent total share), while the former is predicted rise by 6.7 per cent (for a 55.3 per cent total share).