REACT report shows Yorkshire bucked trend on Covid spread

The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (React) round eight interim report, published by Imperial College London, looked at prevalence of Covid-19 during the initial stages of the third nation lockdown in England, from the end of December into the start of January.

While in many areas, particularly in London, the South East and East of England, prevalence of Covid-19 was seen to more than double, researchers noted that in Yorkshire it actually fell.

These graphs show how Yorkshire has fared compared to the rest of the country

The report said “there was an apparent decrease in prevalence in Yorkshire and The Humber” from ‘round 7b’ of testing – which covered November 25 to December 3 – to ‘round 8a’, which takes tests from January 6 to 15, with a small number of tests from December 30.

Imperial College said it “observed large increases at older ages in London, South East, and East of England”, but in Yorkshire “did not show increases between rounds 7b and 8a in older adult ages”.

These maps show how Yorkshire has bucked the trend in the spread of Covid-19, with Bradford marked by a star. Graph: Imperial College London

Researchers did warn however that they have not seen a significant fall in the prevalence of Covid-19 since lockdown began, and that it may have in fact gone up.

They said: “In the initial period of the third national lockdown in England, we did not observe a continued decline in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, as was seen in the routine surveillance data for a similar period.

“Rather, we observed a slight initial decline followed by a plateau or possible increase, but with a weighted average prevalence substantially lower than that reported for end December and beginning of January by the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus Infection Survey.

“It is therefore possible that prevalence may have dropped substantially just prior to the start of REACT-1 round 8a.”