NEW data modelling on the spread of Covid-19 suggests that almost a third of all adults in Bradford have been infected with the virus.

The modelling, by data analysis firm Edge Health, suggests the number of people who have had coronavirus is far higher than the official figures from the Government's test and trace system.

It suggests one in five people across England - 12.4 million people - may have had Covid-19, a lot more than the official number from test and trace which stands at 2.4m people.

In Bradford, the official number of confirmed cases stands at 34,511, but Edge Health's sums have the figure at 164,446, 30 per cent of the city's population.

Edge Health estimated total cases by looking at the number of Covid-related deaths for each council area, and their estimated infection fatality ratio (IFR).

The IFR is calculated by looking at a local authority’s age profile and applying age-specific infection fatality ratios from University of Cambridge research. 

The two numbers are then used to estimate the number of cases by looking at the number of deaths 18 days in the future and comparing it to the IFR, and also bares in mind the rates of positive tests in local authorities and how it has changed over time.

It considers death rates, case rates and age structures in council areas, but does not factor in deprivation and other issues.

Professor Karl Friston, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said that the real number of new cases per day is roughly four to eight times the number of confirmed cases, and that the Edge Health data was similar to that of University College London's studies, where he is a professor.

George Batchelor, director of Edge Health, told the Guardian: “Reported tests are only a fraction of the picture of total infections.

"It is incredible that the level of understanding of where and how infections are occurring is not greater at this stage, since it would allow control measures to be more targeted.

“Even with imminent vaccinations, it is crucial to develop this understanding so that future variants of the virus can be effectively controlled and managed.”

In Leeds, it's estimated 215,749 people have had Covid compared with the official figure of 43,454, equalling 27 per cent of the population.

In Kirklees, 23,476 official cases have been confirm, but Edge Health thinks the real figure is 104,995 - 24 per cent of the population.

Edge Health believe 15 per cent of people in Calderdale have had Covid-19, with their figure of 32,585 more than triple the official figure of 10,186 cases.

Barking & Dagenham and Newham in London are the two worst hit areas, where it's believed 50 per cent of people have had Covid-19.