NEARLY half of independence-supporting voters said they would either definitely or probably vote for a party led by Alex Salmond, a new poll has revealed.
The survey, published on the pro-independence Wings Over Scotland blog, found 45% of those who voted Yes in 2014 said they would back Salmond’s party, with another 33% not prepared to rule it out.
Overall, some 26% of Scottish voters would either definitely or probably give their list vote to a Salmond-led list party, the study found.
The research, conducted last week by Panelbase, also found 40% of those who voted SNP in last year’s Westminster election would either definitely or probably back the new party.
Salmond is currently not a SNP member though several senior figures in the party – including former ministers Kenny MacAskill and Alex Neil and Westminster frontbenchers Joanna Cherry and Philippa Whitford – have called for him to be re-admitted following his acquittal in March after his trial over charges of sexual offences. There has been no indication Salmond intends to form or lead any new party.
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Respondents were asked to imagine the new party would contest seats only on Holyrood’s regional list vote.
The poll found that 31% of 2019 Labour voters said they would definitely or probably back the party, along with 9% of Tories and 7% of LibDems.
It revealed some difference between voting intentions for men and women, with 29% of men and 24% of women saying they would back him.
There is a debate over whether Yes supporters should give their list vote to a second pro-independence party. Last week, journalist Ruth Wishart wrote in her column for The National that voters should consider doing so because of the nature of the proportional list system.
She said: “But at its core is a very simple message: if you do well in the constituency section, you get stuffed in the list one.
“That’s why I’ve always been at a bit of a loss at the SNP’s insistence on ‘both votes SNP’. I mean, I get that it’s a nice clean, simple slogan and all that, but it seems downright perverse to go into bat for voting preferences which are bound to deny you list seats. List seats which will mainly go to assorted Unionist opponents.
“All the current polling suggests that the SNP is likely to do exceptionally well in the first-past-the-post element of next May’s election.
“The obvious corollary of which is that it will do exceptionally badly in the regional lists. Or, to be frank, as hopelessly badly as usual. Both votes SNP means fewer pro-independence seats.”
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Commenting on the poll commissioned for Wings, former Scottish government minister Marco Biagi said it did seem plausible that a party led by Salmond “could get somewhere”.
He said: “People are terrible at predicting future voting behaviour and I would have preferred a hypothetical party to simply be inserted into a standard vote question with all parties listed but the conclusion that a list-only yes party could get somewhere if Alex Salmond leads it seems plausible.
“But would AS be happy to be part of what could probably, at most, be a second force in Holyrood? And wouldn’t it trigger a reaction from the other side? Yes isn’t the only one that can theoretically game the lists.” He added: “Our electoral system would come under pressure too. Either we would become by default an only semi-proportional parallel voting system or someone somewhere would take action and move Holyrood (finally) to a single vote PR system.”
Salmond is currently writing a book about his experiences. Earlier this year, former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars said the SNP might need to be replaced after amid “explosive” fallout from the trial.
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