IT has been more than two months since the Government called last orders on pubs.

But by early July some of them could be open again, with pubs that have outdoor spaces likely to be among the first venues in the hospitality sector to re-open when coronavirus restrictions are eased.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivered some optimism in the sector after saying he hoped the two-metre social distancing rule could soon be reduced to enable businesses to reopen.

So what does the future hold for pubs? Takings are likely to be high initially, but, says Bradford historian Paul Jennings, author of The Local; A History of The English Pub, “the lifting of lockdown won’t necessarily bring immediate relief”.

“Strict safety measures will be required. The plans of Wetherspoons, for example, include the provision of protective screens at till points and around some seating, gloves, masks and protective eyewear for staff, and hand sanitisers. Social distancing will have to be maintained, which for small establishments will prove difficult. The British Beer and Pub Association is campaigning for this to be reduced to one metre. Then there’s the question of whether customers will want to return in numbers to this new environment,” said Mr Jennings.

“Although some pubs have offered takeaway service and like other businesses have access to Government furlough schemes and business loans, these are incredibly difficult times. Complete closing of all pubs is quite unprecedented. During the Great Plague of 1666, although the authorities were ordered to licence no more than necessary, pubs weren’t closed, whereas homes where the infection was present were shut for 40 days and a red cross painted on the door. During the Spanish flu of 1918-19, when some 228,000 died in Britain, although there was some closing of schools, and advice to avoid public places, there was no complete closure of pubs as there was in some parts of Australia and America.

“Even before this crisis pubs had been declining. In 1951 there were over 73,000 pubs but 15 years ago that had fallen to 51,000, closing at a rate of 30 a week. They fell victim to rising costs, falling sales and competition from home drinking and other licensed premises. For some, the 2007 smoking ban had an impact. Over that longer term wider social changes had led to decline, including the demise of heavy and manufacturing industry, removing an essential support of the urban male-dominated pub and the massive shift to suburbs and large estates. At the same time, rising affluence tempted people into the growing numbers of restaurants and many others into drinking at home, greatly aided by the growth of supermarket sales. Bradford shared those trends. Whole areas of the city are now almost entirely empty of pubs, where even just 20 or 30 years ago they were still found in some numbers. A walk or drive along Leeds, Manchester or Wakefield Roads makes that clear enough.”

Mr Jennings says the UK’s surviving 115,000 pubs and other licensed premises continue to face uncertainty: “Market recovery monitor Alix Partners CGA recently noted that 2,800 had closed in the 12 months before lockdown. Industry estimates put the fall in the total number of premises in its wake at as much as 30per cent.”

Are there grounds for optimism? “The pub has been declining for a long time but it has also responded to change by, for example, emphasising the food side and accommodating families,” he said. “The public affection for the ‘local’ would also suggest optimism, as seen in fights to save community pubs. A recent survey found that after the crisis is over local pubs might be preferred to those in city centres with a more floating population. This fear of strangers we have seen in recent pleas for people to stay away from rural areas.

“There remains, as in all aspects of the outbreak, much uncertainty. Evidence from previous times of crisis, including the two world wars, suggests that people want to return to the lives they had. I think we can see that in responses to the easing of lockdown. Pub-going will share in that. But at the same time, those trends already producing a fall in the number of pubs will continue and, perhaps above all, the likely economic consequences of the pandemic can only make that situation worse.”