NO deal Brexit could lead to staffing problems in key industries and the loss of thousands of jobs in Bradford, a new report looking at the worst case scenario for the area has claimed.

On Tuesday, Bradford Council’s Executive will be given an update on the Council’s preparations for Brexit at its final scheduled meeting before planned October 31 exit from the EU.

A report going to the committee reveals that out of 37,000 EU nationals currently living in the Bradford District, just 5,270 had so far applied for settled or pre-settled status.

A section on the the potential impact of Brexit on jobs suggests as many as 4,000 local jobs could be lost from the Bradford District as a result of hard Brexit.

And it also reveals that Bradford Council has stockpiled at least 30 days worth of fuel to keep Council vehicles running in the event of fuel shortages caused by No Deal.


The possibility of delays in food imports is also considered.

Although the Brexit Referendum took place over three years ago, there is still no certainty on what form the UK’s exit from the EU will take - although the time to leave with a deal is running out.

The Council report, written late last month, refers to this uncertainty saying: “Given the rapidly changing context of Brexit, it is possible that this report may not be fully up to date with external events at the time of the Executive Committee.”

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It breaks down work being done to prepare for Brexit is sectors including the health and voluntary sector, as well as within the Council.

The report refers to a study by the London School of Economics that looked at the impact of Hard and Soft Brexit on Gross Value Added - a measure used to assess economic productivity.

The report says: “A soft Brexit would see a fall in GVA of 1.2 per cent. A hard Brexit would see a fall in GVA of 2.1 per cent.

“Using the LSE GVA figures to estimate potential jobs losses, Bradford could lose between 2,000 and 4,000 jobs in a hard Brexit scenario over the next few years.

“A soft Brexit could see the loss of 1,000 to 2,000 jobs.”

EU residents living in the UK who want to remain after Brexit need to apply for settled, or pre-settled status by December 31 2020. The report says just 14 per cent of Bradford's EU residents have applied so far.

Bradford Council has a responsibility for any looked after children from the EU living in the district. The report says there are currently 84 LAC who are from the EU, and 11 care leavers who have recently turned 18.

On the import of goods from overseas after No Deal, the report adds: "It is widely acknowledged that disruption to supply chains has the potential for wide ranging impact on the availability of essential goods and services and the ability of business and services to maintain business continuity."

Other details of the report include:

  • Of the 158 care providers in the district surveyed, 12.5 per cent said they were concerned about the implications of Brexit on their staffing.
  • Delays to the food supply chain could “intensify the impact of food and fuel poverty, affecting the most vulnerable in our community”
  • Companies that provide catering to Bradford's schools are "confident" they should be able to maintain supplies
  • Numerous contracts would have to be re-written due to the UK being designated a “third country” in terms of trade rules and regulations
  • “Commercial viability” of some sectors may be threatened if current EU staff are lost, or there is a reduction in EU immigration leading to workforce or specific skills shortages.

On food supplies, the report says: “It is not certain that prices will rise. Some food stuffs could become cheaper in the longer term. However, the consensus of opinion is that prices of food and electricity will rise, at least in the short term.”

The report also breaks down how many EU nationals are employed in different sectors in the district.

Bradford’s manufacturing sector employs an estimated 2,000 EU workers, while 1,200 work in the local construction industry.

Two thousand EU nationals work in the district’s shops and wholesale businesses with another 1,200 working in the hospitality sector.

Bradford’s transport and storage businesses employs 1,100 EU workers.

Bradford Council had been awarded £210,000 by the Government to prepare for Brexit. The report says that this money has been spent on a combination of supporting vulnerable people through the Settled Status scheme and general communications to the public about Brexit.

An additional £104,000 in Government Brexit cash was awarded to Bradford in August. This money will be”held in readiness to deploy to cover eventualities which the Council may need to react to over the coming weeks in this fast changing environment.”

The Executive meets in City Hall at 10.30am.

After reading the report, Councillor Jeanette Sunderland, leader of the Liberal Democrats in Bradford, said: "There is a lack of detail on what Council contracts will be effected by No Deal.

"The Council's big role in this is looking after children and young people in the social care system, and there is not as much detail in this report on how they are preparing to deal with this responsibility as I'd expect there to be.

"I would also like more detail in how the social care system will cope and if there will be enough staff."