Straws in the wind

ceasefire. Republican disavowals have if anything intensified the

speculation. The Irish papers, on the strength of sources close to the

IRA, seem convinced that something is in the offing. In the UK, the

prognostications are being received with rather more scepticism. This is

entirely natural, after so many disappointments already. At the time of

the Downing Street declaration there was rash talk of peace by

Christmas. Even if a ceasefire is declared within the next few weeks

there is little prospect of peace even by this Christmas. What is being

mooted is not a permanent and unconditional cessation of the IRA's

campaign of violence but an open-ended ceasefire -- a much more

tentative proposition and one that is believed to have been designed for

tactical reasons. The IRA is evidently hoping for political leverage,

and perhaps for disagreements between Dublin and London, or is trying to

recover the propaganda initiative that it lost with its negative reply

to the Downing Street declaration. It will be remembered that last

year's visit by a high-powered Irish-American delegation was also the

occasion for a ceasefire. Not even an extended, or open-ended, ceasefire

would fulfil the UK-Irish requirement for a total renunciation of

violence before the talking starts.

Yet an open-ended ceasefire would still be a considerable advance on

the limited lull during the delegation's last visit. It would also be in

line with the belief, held all along by the more cautious kind of

optimist, that progress might just be made in the autumn. The IRA's

long-awaited and wholly unconstructive response to the Downing Street

declaration seemed to dash even that slender hope, but recently there

have hints of movement behind the scenes. The transfer of a number of

IRA prisoners from England to Northern Ireland, which Republicans had

long demanded, has been seen as a straw in the wind. An extended

ceasefire could not be rewarded by a place for Sinn Fein at the

negotiating table -- both Dublin and London have been clear on that

score -- but it could clear the way for a more cautious advance. Already

there have been hints at the possibility of lowering the British

military profile, a step that might encourage a further extension of the

ceasefire or a statement that sounds a bit more like a commitment to

make it permanent.

If the American delegation can encourage this process, so much the

better, although again there is cause for wariness. Irish-Americans have

not invariably been helpful in the past, to put it mildly. The present

delegation has an open line to President Clinton, but the President's

own record is less than encouraging: he miscalculated badly when Mr

Adams was given a visa. But it is possible that this time the American

presence could encourage a prolonged break in hostilities which would

bring with it opportunities for further progress. While London and

Dublin should press ahead with their plans for round-table talks with

the other political parties they should not neglect any opportunities

for drawing in Sinn Fein as well, on the terms laid down in the Downing

Street declaration.