Pakistani politics in normal days and normal circumstances, a rare commodity that the country has enjoyed in its short history, is much complex and unpredictable. 

But in the last two weeks, the sudden and dramatic appearance of Dr. Tahir ul Qadri, the head of Minhaj ul Quran, on the country’s political horizon, has caused shock waves to the Pakistan politics. In his first public rally of estimated two million people in Lahore he said, “He has returned to Pakistan from Canada to save the state and not politics.”

By taking the oath on the Holy Quran he declared that he has no desire of holding any government office, delaying elections or using any financial assistance provided by any foreign powers or domestic institutions to embark upon his mission of electoral reforms.

Since then Dr. Qadari has been busily engaged in wooing the support of the country’s political parties and up to now he has secured the backing of MQM and Muslim League (Q). Recently he was invited by the MQm to their headquarters in Karachi to share a platform with their leader Mr. Altaf Hussain from London who assured him the Party’s full support for his intended massive gathering in Islamabad on 14th January as well as for his other demands.

Dr. Qadari has offered an attractive agenda on electoral reforms to the nation including some of the burning issues which affect the lives of the poor masses. He strongly advocated the inclusion of all major stakeholders in the interim government, particularly the army, judiciary and representatives of civil society.

His powerful slogan is to free the oppressed and powerless citizens of the country from the clutches of feudal and corrupt politicians and to accord them the opportunity to use their voting right freely and without any pressures.

He also wants the incoming interim government to cleanse the accumulated garbage of corrupt governance that has prevailed since the creation of the country. Above all he would like to ensure that the interim government is headed by a most honest and pious man! It is a colossal task which he has repeatedly claimed to accomplish in 90 days.

The established major political parties of the country seem to be quaking and in the midst of apprehensions by his unexpected advent and are currently assessing the political impact which his presence may make. They are shocked and confused and unwilling to give any clear response.

The Tehrik-e-Insaf (Imran Khan} has politely accused the Maulana of stealing their agenda which they have been promoting for the past fifteen years. The Peoples Party and the Muslim League (N) still are pursuing a policy of wait and see.

Despite their ambiguousness it is expected that most of the parties that are part of the current system will, in no time, form a united front against the proposed long march.

Many observers are discussing the widespread theory that Dr Tahir ul Qadari is not alone in pursuing so tenaciously his well defined and astutely devised strategy for the reconstruction of Pakistani polity. They suspect that he has been planted by both the external and internal invisible powers whose priority is to pave the way for the formation of a broad based and religiously moderate interim government without the consent of the present parliament.

Such a government, they contend could extend its tenure for even an indefinite period of time under the pretext for carrying out the reforms proposed by Dr. Qadari. Another widely shared perception is that Nawaz Sharrif is not on the good books of the USA and Pakistan Army and Zardari’s track record of the last five years is a dismal failure in delivering good governance. Therefore the clandestine plan is to keep both leaders aloof from power at least for the next two years..

Imran Khan is not perhaps conceived to be any serious threat as his party policies and political stances are not in direct conflict with the program put forward by Tahir ul Qadari. Dr. Qadari has most vigorously denied all the above speculations and allegations.

However, the Maulana’s statements and sermons since his decendance to Pakistan are fraught with several contradictions. His most emphatically repeated slogan has been to save the state and not politics. How can people believe that a man of his stature and intellect cannot be aware about his conduct which has been all about politics and nothing but politics in the last two weeks? Why he has accepted so willingly and without any reservations the offer of support from those political parties and politicians whose notoriety is well known for their past history of violence, financial corruption and political thugery?

Their most abominable acts to collude and co-operate with military dictators are unforgiveable and yet Qadari Sahib has embraced them as his staunch allies. How can Maulana sahib ask for the exclusion of those with dual nationality from the electoral process when he himself is enjoying this privilege? Has he not thrown out of the window his sublime principles and much cherished moral values? His principal aim which he is continuously uttering may be laudable and popular but is it logically and practically possible to achieve it within 90 days? The present judicial system cannot be capable of coping with his wish list and he is surely intelligent enough to recognise this reality.

Dr. Qadari has compelled the entire nation to indulge in speculations and suspicions. On 14th of January if he is able to realise his dream of attracting four million Pakistanis from all corners of the country and from all walks of life into the streets of Islamabad and is able to demonstrate his resolve to stay there until his demands are guaranteed to be implemented, this can be an unprecedented victory for him and his followers.

His assertion that the anticipated huge gathering in the capital will be peaceful and free from any violence can turn into a false hope. If the event ends without any trouble or intervention it will be akin to a miracle. Most importantly, this historical event, if it materialises successfully, will be instrumental in producing some kind of change, the change that may be associated with either some reforms or chaos and even anarchy and a serious blow to the continuation of democracy in Pakistan.

Whatever happens on January 14, the prognosis of Dr Qadari’s venture seems to be full of unpredictabilities and immense misgivings and misdiagnoses.

Mohammed Ajeeb (CBE), First Asian Lord Mayor in Britain