A new method of predicting solar storms devised by scientists in Bradford could save billions of pounds across the globe by helping to avoid widespread blackouts.

Researchers at the University of Bradford have developed a system which predicts solar storms and could help avoid widespread power and communication blackouts.

The Bradford Automated Solar Activity Prediction system, already in use by both NASA and the European Space Agency, identifies and classifies sun spots and feeds the information through a model which predicts the likelihood of solar flares.

The system is able to accurately predict a solar flare six hours in advance and the team are working to achieve a similar accuracy for the prediction of major solar eruptions in the near future.

Dr Rami Qahwaji, a reader in visual computing, who led the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council-funded research at the university, said: “Solar weather prediction is still very much in its infancy, probably at about the point that normal weather forecasting was about 50 years ago. However, our system is a major step forward.

“By creating an automated system that can work in real time, we open up the possibility for much faster prediction and – with sufficient data – prediction of a wider range of activity. With NASA’s new Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite, which came into operation in May, we have the chance to see the sun’s activity in much greater detail which will further improve our prediction capabilities.”

The team at the university’s Centre for Visual Computing have created the first online automated prediction system, using 3D images generated from the joint NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite.

The ASAP model is based on historical data, analysed to identify patterns in the sun’s activity. The university says the next major solar storms are expected in 2012-13 as part of the sun’s 11-year weather cycle.

A 2008 US National Academy of Sciences report said modern reliance on electronics and satellite communications meant a major storm could cause up to 20 times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.

Solar flares, which can cause disruption to communications, take just a few minutes to reach Earth, so advance warning is vital to allow steps to avoid the worst effects.

Dr Qahwaji is now applying for more funding to further improve the system and ensure it can work with the latest technology.